HELLO EVERYONE AND WELCOME TO AMANPOUR AND COMPANY.

HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

MOST PEOPLE SAY IT'S ALREADY BEEN WON.

IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF WHEN.

WHEN DO WE STOP?

TRUMP CLAIMS VICTORY EVEN AS THE WAR ESCALATES AND THE NEW SUPREME LEADER PROMISES REVENGE.

I'LL ASK JOURNALIST RONEN BERGMAN IF THE US AND ISRAEL ARE STILL ALIGNED.

THEN... IT MAY BE A FRIENDLY TAKEOVER.

IT MAY NOT BE A FRIENDLY TAKEOVER.

TRUMP SETS HIS SIGHTS ON CUBA NEXT.

WITH THE COUNTRY ON THE BRINK OF ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AND HUMANITARIAN DISASTER, WHERE WILL THAT LEAD?

I'M JOINED BY JEFFREY DELAURENTIS, AMERICA'S MAN IN CUBA AFTER DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WERE RESTORED UNDER OBAMA.

THERE HAS TO BE KIND OF A RECKONING AND THE LONGER IT TAKES, SOMETIMES THE WORSE IT IS.

STREETWISE, WALTER ISAACSON SPEAKS TO LLOYD BLANKFEIN, FORMER CEO OF GOLDMAN SACHS, ABOUT HIS RISE FROM THE PUBLIC HOUSING PROJECTS OF NEW YORK TO THE TOP OF THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRY, AND WHY HE BELIEVES THE NEXT ECONOMIC CRISIS IS COMING.

♪♪ IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WEIR, THE SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTISEMITISM, THE STRAUSS FAMILY FOUNDATION.

THE PETER G PETERSON AND JOAN FUND.

CHARLES ROSENBLUM.

MONIQUE WARSHAW.

COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES.

BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG.

AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION BY VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM EVERYONE, I AM CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN LONDON.

A VOW OF REVENGE FROM IRAN'S NEW SUPREME LEADER.

IN A STATEMENT AT UB TO BUY HIM AND READ BY IRANIAN STATE TV USING A STOCK PICTURE, FIRST PROCLAMATION PLEDGES RETRIBUTION FOR THE DEATH OF HIS FAMILY, IT ALSO SAID THE STRAIGHT WILL REMAIN CLOSED AND CALLED FOR U.S.

BASES IN THE MIDDLE STREET TO BE SHUTTERED.

HE HAS NOT YET APPEARED IN THE PUBLIC SINCE HIS APPOINTMENT.

MEANWHILE, IRAN IS ESCALATING ATTACKS ON GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLIES AND ITS LEADERS IN THE PERSIAN GULF.

WITH THE PRICE OF OIL SOARING PRESIDENT TRUMP INSISTS HE HAS ALREADY WON THE WAR ON IRAN SAYING IT IS SIMPLY A QUESTION OF WHEN WE STOP.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF THE REGIME ACCORDING TO U.S.

INTELLIGENCE.

WHILE ISRAEL CONTINUES ITS HEAVY BOMBARDMENT OF IRAN AND LEBANON.

SO ARE THE U.S.

AND ISRAEL STILL CLEARLY ALIGNED IN THIS WAR?

LET'S BRING IN ROMAN FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES.

HE HAS REPORTED ON ISRAEL'S MILITARY STRATEGY FOR YEARS.

WELCOME BACK TO OUR PROGRAM, RONIN.

>> THANK YOU.

GOOD TO BE HERE.

>> EVERYBODY MADE A BIG DEAL ABOUT HOW THIS WAS THE FIRST JOINT HIGHLY INTEGRATED MILITARY WAR, BUT NOW THERE'S MORE AND MORE WRITING AND TALKING ABOUT HOW POTENTIALLY THEY MAY NOT BE ON THE SAME PAGE AS THEY SEEK THE U.S.

SEEKS SOME SORT OF EXIT STRATEGY.

WHAT CAN YOU TELL US?

>> FIRST OF ALL, I THINK WE NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS BECAUSE AT THE TOP OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE COUNTRIES, OF COURSE THE RELATIONS BETWEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE PRIME MINISTER.

IN SPITE OF ALL THE PREDICTIONS THAT AT A CERTAIN POINT TRUMP WILL JUST BE TIRED OR STOPPED, THEY CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED AND I THINK HE WAS ABLE TO BREAK TRUMP OR INFLUENCE RESIDENT TRUMP TO GET TO THE EXACT POINT WHERE MR.

NETANYAHU THOUGHT HE SHOULD BRING A TRUMP IN THE U.S.

TO REMIND ALL OF US HE WAS ABLE TO GET TRUMPS BLESSING FOR THE ISRAELI ATTACK ON THE 12th OF JUNE THAT CONVINCED TRUMP TO JOIN THAT ATTACK.

AND NOW FULFILLING HIS LONG- TERM DREAM TO HAVE A JOINT ISRAELI U.S.

STRIKE.

FOR THE TIME BEING IN MOST AREAS I WOULD SAY THAT THE ISRAELI MILITARY LEADERS FULLY ACCEPT THE PRINCIPLE THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY ONE PERSON WHO SHUTS DOWN THE WAR AND UNTIL HE DOESN'T SAY ANYTHING ELSE THEY WILL CONTINUE.

THIS PERSON IS NOT MR.

NOT YAHOO BUT MR.

TRUMP.

THAT IS THE PRICE THEY ARE PLAYING FOR-- PAIN FOR THIS ALIGNMENT.

WE SEE SOME DISTANCES ON A FEW TOPICS.

ONE OF THEM IS ON THE ISSUE OF LEBANON, THE ISRAELI LEADERS THOUGHT THAT THEY HAD FREE TO DO IN LEBANON WHATEVER THEY WANT AND SOME AMERICAN OFFICIALS EXPRESSED.

THE SECOND THING IS, OF COURSE, AMERICAN RAGE OVER THE BOMBING OF THE OIL DEPOT.

THEY CLAIMED THAT IT WAS NOT COORDINATED WITH THE ISRAELIS, BUT NOW THIS AMERICAN ORDER FOR THE ISRAELIS NOT TO STRIKE ANYTHING FROM CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE TO STORAGE OF OIL AND GAS WITHOUT GETTING PERMISSION FROM THE U.S.

AND ALSO THAT THERE WERE AMERICANS AND THIS NEEDS TIME AND FOR THE REPORTING.

THE AMERICANS WERE UNDER THE IMPRESSION THAT ISRAEL AND SOME ISRAELIS HAVE A DIFFERENT INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT.

ONE IS GOING TO HAPPEN ONCE THEY STRUCK.

THE REGIME IS MUCH MORE FRAGILE.

THAT THE PROTESTS ARE GOING TO BE REIGNITED, START AGAIN.

I DON'T KNOW WHAT WAS THE ASSESSMENT THAT LED ANYONE TO THINK THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN.

THERE IS A REAL CHANCE TO A REGIME CHANGE, TO AN EXTENT PART OF THE REASON THAT CONVINCED MR.

TRUMP TO GO FOR THIS ATTACK IS EXCEPT FOR ATTACKING THESE PEOPLE, ASSASSINATING THE SUPREME LEADER, BESIDES THAT THIS WILL LEAD EVEN TODAY, WE WOULD HAVE BEEN IN A VERY DIFFERENT PLACE.

BUT IT DIDN'T WORK.

THIS COULD LEAD TO FRUSTRATION.

>> REPORTED WHAT HAS BEEN PUBLICIZED THAT ACCORDING TO PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH THE LATEST U.S.

INTELLIGENCE FINDINGS THEY ARE SAYING THERE IS NO WEAKENING OR NO IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF THE ISLAMIC REGIME.

AND AS YOU SAY, THIS IS SOMETHING THAT I GUESS ISRAEL AND TRUMP THOUGHT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN.

OTHERS SAY IN FACT IT'S DONE THE OPPOSITE, IT HAS CONSOLIDATED THE REGIME AROUND A MUCH HARDER LINE IN THAT THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD AND MOJTABA KHAMENEI IF HE IS IN FACT , YOU KNOW, AROUND, IS VERY MUCH ALIGNED WITH THE I/O JC.

WHAT DO YOU MAKE AND WHAT HAVE YOUR SOURCES TOLD YOU, DO THEY THINK MOJTABA IS ALIVE AND WELL?

YOU CAN SAY THAT IS BECAUSE THEY DON'T TO SHOW HIM BECAUSE HE KNOW HE'S GOT A TARGET ON HIS BACK BUT WHAT DO THEY THINK?

>> FIRST OF ALL, HE HAS A TARGET ON HIS BACK, YOU JUST NEED TO LISTEN TO THIS.

BEFORE HE WAS ELECTED SAID HE IS A TARGET.

SO JUST OPEN SOURCES.

AND MY COLLEAGUES AT THE NEW YORK TIMES AND MYSELF WHO PUBLISHED A STORY ABOUT POSSIBLE REASONS WHY WE HAVE NOT YET SEEN MOJTABA KHAMENEI.

ONE IS FOR SECURITY.

THIS DOESN'T EXPLAIN THE ABSENCE OF A VIDEO THAT COULD BE TAKEN SEPARATELY IN A LOCATION.

AND THE SOURCES BOTH IRANIAN AND ISRAELI OFFICIALS SAYING THAT HE WAS INJURED PROBABLY IN THE LEGS, MAY BE THE STOMACH.

IN THE FIRST DAY OF THE WAR.

BUT SOME SOURCES DO NOT IDENTIFY HIS LOCATION IN THE COURT OF THE SUPREME LEADER OR HIS WIFE, HIS MOTHER, HIS FATHER.

SO WE DON'T KNOW WE ARE NOT SURE WHERE BUT I THINK WE ARE QUITE CERTAIN THAT HE WAS INJURED AND NOW BEING TAKEN CARE OF IN SOME KIND OF A MEDICAL FACILITY.

BUT IF YOU LISTEN TO THE ISRAELI CLAIMS IT'S A SECRET BECAUSE OTHERWISE THEY WILL KILL HIM WHICH COULD BE ALSO CONTRADICTION TO ANY KIND OF ATTEMPT OF THE U.S.

TO CLOSE A DEAL.

IF HE IS KILLED THE CHANCES ARE GOING TO BE EVEN SLIMMER.

>> THAT'S INTERESTING.

SO LISTEN, YOU AND OTHERS, I THINK YOU AND MAYBE OTHER COLLEAGUES WROTE AN ARTICLE ABOUT THE MISCALCULATION AMONG THE DONALD TRUMP CAMP AS THEY WENT INTO THIS.

MANY OF US EXPRESSED SURPRISE AT IRAN'S FURIOUS RETALIATION.

I DON'T THINK THEY REALLY THOUGHT THEY WOULD CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OR ATTACK QUITE A WIDE ARRAY IN THE GULF STATES OF TARGETS.

I MEAN, DO YOU STAND BY THAT THAT THEY WERE TAKEN BY SURPRISE AND WHERE DO YOU THINK, WHAT YOU THINK THEY ARE GOING TO DO?

DOES ISRAEL CARE THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED OR IS THIS JUST AN AMERICAN AND MORE GLOBAL ISSUE WITH THE PRICE OF OIL?

>> WELCOME THERE ARE SOME VERY PROMINENT IS REALLY PRIVATE BUSINESSES WHO CONTROL MUCH OF THE TRAFFIC, MUCH OF THE CARGO SHIPS.

SO IT HAS AN EFFECT BUT IT IS MOST ABOUT THE EFFECT ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMY AND ON PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE PRESSURES HE IS UNDER AND WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT I UNDERSTAND I ASKED A OFFICER, HOW HE KNOWS THE IDF OR DEFENSE KNOW THAT THEY WANT A WAR.

WHAT IS THE STATISTICS FOR WHAT IS THE BAR?

WHERE IS THE BAR?

HE SAID WELL, IT'S NOT REALLY UP TO US.

MEANING IT'S UP TO PRESIDENT TRUMP.

WHAT THE ISRAELI OFFICIALS ARE TRYING TO DO IS GET AS MANY TARGETS HIT, THEY SAY THAT THEY HAVE TARGETS, ESPECIALLY NOW THE MILITARY TRYING TO GET AS MANY HITS, AS MANY DESTROYED BECAUSE THEY KNOW THAT THIS IS ON A LIMITED TIME.

I THINK THAT THE ASSESSMENT NOW IN ISRAEL IS THAT IT'S NOT MORE THAN SEVEN TO 10 DAYS UNTIL PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL CALL THIS OFF.

WITH SOME TYPE OF AN AGREEMENT.

WE REPORTED LAST WEEK THERE WAS A SECRET CHANNEL THROUGH THE CIA, THE MINISTER OF INTELLIGENCE AND EUROPEAN COUNTRY.

SOME KIND OF A BACK CHANNEL BETWEEN THE U.S.

AND IRAN.

SO EITHER DECLARE VICTORY OR GO TO SOME KIND OF AN AGREEMENT.

ONLY TWO THINGS THAT REALLY CAN CHANGE THE WAR.

IF THEY ARE ABLE TO SECURE THE ENRICHED URANIUM.

>> LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THAT.

YOU REPORTED EARLIER THAT AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE HAD FOUND THAT IRAN OR ANOTHER GROUP COULD RETRIEVE IRAN'S PRIMARY STORE OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM.

THEY TOLD US THAT THIS HAD BEEN ENTOMBED DURING THE 12 DAY WAR.

HOW IMPORTANT OR HOW MUCH OF A GOAL IS THAT NOW?

BECAUSE THEY SAY THEY HAVE OBLITERATED IRAN'S ABILITY TO CONTINUE ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM BUT THERE IS THAT HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM WHICH IS PRETTY DANGEROUS STUFF IF IT WAS USED.

>> THE END OF THE WAR, PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID THAT NUCLEAR SITES WERE OBLITERATED AND ANNOUNCED THAT THEY REMOVED THE NUCLEAR THREAT AND EXISTENTIAL THREAT AND THE EXISTENTIAL THREAT FOR DECADES.

BOTH OF THEM LIED.

THIS IS NOT TRUE.

IRAN HAS INSUFFICIENT QUANTITIES SO IT CAN MAKE 10 NUCLEAR BOMBS OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM.

VERY CLOSE TO THE DEGREE NEEDED FOR THE WARHEAD.

AND IRAN CLAIMS IS STORED UNDER THE GROUND IN A PLACE THAT WAS BOMBED BY THE U.S.

MILITARY IN JUNE.

THEY SAY THAT IT'S BASICALLY BURIED THERE.

BUT INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS DISCOVERED THE LAST FEW MONTHS A LOT OF DIGGING TAKING PLACE AND THE BELIEF THEY FOUND THE WAY THEY CAN FIND SOMEONE IN THEIR TO MAKE SURE.

NOW, THERE ARE SOME SPECULATIONS OF U.S.

PLANNING OR U.S.

AND IS REALLY PLANNING-- ISRAELI PLANNING TO TAKE THE ENRICHED URANIUM.

IF THIS HAPPENS IT FULLY DECAPITATES IRAN'S ABILITY TO GO FOR A BOMB IF ALL THE URANIUM IS ACHIEVED-- RETRIEVED.

BECAUSE THE ENRICHMENT CYCLE HAS BEEN DESTROYED.

IF IT'S TAKEN AWAY FROM THEM THEY CANNOT CONTINUE AND THEY NEED TO START FROM THE BEGINNING.

IT'S DANGEROUS, COLLOCATED AND I'M NOT SURE IT'S STORED IN ONE PLACE OR MAYBE THE IRANIANS WERE CLEVER ENOUGH TO SPREAD IT IN OTHER PLACES IN IRAN IN CASE SOMEONE COMES IN AND OPENS THE DOOR OF THE BUNKER.

>> ON THE OTHER ISSUE OF REGIME CHANGE.

I MEAN, FROM ALL THE INFO I CAN FIND I THINK ISRAEL IS COMMITTED.

THEY'D LIKE TO SEE THIS AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE IRANIAN PEOPLE BEING ABLE TO RISE UP.

I NOTICED AND IT'S BEEN WRITTEN, OBVIOUSLY, THERE WAS A LITTLE SHIFT IN TACTIC OR MAYBE STRATEGY.

OVERNIGHT ISRAELI DRONES ATTACKED A LOCAL IRANIAN IN TEHRAN A SECURITY CHECKPOINT.

WHICH GOES TO THE HEART OF THE I GUESS THE APPARATUS THAT WOULD BE THE REPRESSIVE APPARATUS.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT ANY OF THAT ABOUT DRONES BEING USED AGAINST ALL THESE SECURITY PERSONNEL.

>> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT DRIVES SECURITY OFFICIALS REALLY CRAZY IS HOW IS ISRAEL ABLE TO MAINTAIN A REGIME OF 24/7 FLEETS OF DRONES FLYING OVER IRAN ALL THE TIME.

VERY FAR AWAY FROM ISRAEL.

IT TAKES TIME TO FUEL IT.

ISRAEL HAS THESE FIRING DRONES.

SHIFTING THEM TO FIRE ON SMALL TARGETS THAT BELONG TO THE REGIME OR RETRACE-- REPRESS OUT OF THE REGIME.

PART OF WHAT ISRAEL IS TRYING TO DO.

IT'S NOT SAYING TO LEAD THE REGIME CHANGE.

BASICALLY SAYING TO THE POTENTIAL PROTESTS WE ARE PREPARING THE GROUND FOR YOU TO TAKE OVER.

SOME SAYING IN SHORT WE WILL HAND OVER THE BUNKER TO YOU AND YOU WILL CONTINUE, YOU WILL HAVE THE CONDITIONS FROM WHICH YOU CAN START A REVOLUTION.

I THINK THIS IS QUITE NAOVE.

AND MAYBE POSSIBLY ALSO USES AN ALIBI FOR NETANYAHU LATER .

WE PREPARED THE GROUND, THEY DID NOT RISE UP AND STARTED PROTESTING AGAIN.

YOU CAN UNDERSTAND THAT BECAUSE THEY WERE JUST BUTCHERED IN MANY MANY THOUSANDS.

I THINK ISRAEL IS TRYING TO SAY THAT IT'S HELPING THE PROTESTERS.

TIME WILL TELL IF THIS IS INDEED ENCOURAGEMENT AND I HOPE TO CIVIL SOCIETY TO RISE UP AND GO TO THE STREETS AGAIN.

>> ONE LAST QUESTION BECAUSE IT'S CLEAR THAT YOUR GOVERNMENT PLANS TO CONTINUE ITS HEAVY BOMBARDMENT.

GOING AFTER HEZBOLLAH IN LEBANON.

AND EVEN AFTER BEYOND ANY END TO THE IRAN WAR.

SOURCES ARE SAYING ISRAEL IS PREPARING FOR SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF ATTACKS ON IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH ET CETERA.

AND YOU HAVE HEARD THE EXTREME RIGHT WING SAY WE ARE GOING TO TURN INTO HON EUNICE I.E.

FLATTEN IT, ONE OF THE HEZBOLLAH STRONGHOLDS.

SO WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN THERE?

>> FIRST OF ALL, UNTIL NOW ISRAELI OFFICIALS ARE UNDER THE IMPRESSION THAT THIS IS A JOINT OPERATION, THE U.S.

HAS ITS OWN DEMANDS AND ORDERS WHAT TO DO AND WHAT NOT TO DO.

AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IS THE ONE WHO WILL CALL THE SHOTS AND DECIDE WHERE TO END THEM.

BUT IN LEBANON THE U.S.

IS GIVING ISRAEL A MUCH LONGER LEASH TO DO LONGER, DEEPER, MORE EXTENSIVE AND WHAT WE SEE NOW IS THE MOST EXTENSIVE OPERATION SINCE THE WAR IN SEPTEMBER 2024.

HEZBOLLAH, THE LEBANESE GOVERNMENT WAS NOT ABLE TO ENFORCE HIS AUTHORITY ON HEZBOLLAH.

IT STAYED IN THIS WAY.

ISRAEL USED THE OPPORTUNITY OF HEZBOLLAH BASICALLY BEING CONVINCED BY THE GUARDS TO START FIRING TO HELP IRAN.

THAT ISRAEL REACTED WITH MUCH FORCE.

COULD MAYBE TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY AND FINISH THE PROBLEM.

THIS ORGANIZATION THAT NETANYAHU , THE SAME THING HE SAID ABOUT THE NUCLEAR PROJECT THAT IT'S DONE, IT'S FINISHED.

THEY ALSO SAID ABOUT HEZBOLLAH, THEY ARE ALIVE AND KICKING.

THIS COULD TAKE VERY LONG.

MUCH LONGER UNLESS THE U.S.

ORDERS ISRAEL TO STOP THIS COULD JUST CONTINUE FOR SOME KIND OF A WAR OF ATTRITION.

AND I THINK THE ISRAELI MILITARY IS PLANNING THAT.

TO SOMETHING THAT THEY WERE NOT THINKING WOULD OPEN A NEW FRONT FOR THE COUNTRY.

>> LET ME ASK YOU FINALLY AND IN MY LAST COUPLE OF MINUTES REALLY, YOU ARE OBVIOUSLY THE AUTHOR OF "RISE AND KILL FIRST" THE ASSASSINATION PROGRAM YOU DIVE DEEP INTO AND IT'S HAPPENED ALL OVER AND WE'VE SEEN IT CERTAINLY OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS SINCE OCTOBER 7.

AND OF COURSE BEFORE.

AND NOW IN IRAN.

IT JUST SEEMS THAT THIS IS AN ENDLESS DECADES LONG PROGRAM THAT MAY BE LONG-- CUTS THE TOP OF THE HEAD OFF BUT DOESN'T CHANGE THE FUNDAMENTALS.

>> I'VE SPENT YEARS OF MY LIFE WORKING RESEARCHING FOR THE BOOK AND TRYING TO FIND ONE ANSWER.

IS IT GOOD OR IS IT BAD TO USE THE TARGET OF KILLING OR ASSASSINATIONS?

ALSO FROM THE LEGAL POINT OF VIEW.

ISRAEL AFTER OCTOBER 7 COMPILED A LIST THAT WAS AUTHORIZED BY THIS COMMITTEE OF INTELLIGENCE AND THEN BY THE CABINET.

100 INDIVIDUALS THAT ARE AUTHORIZED AS TARGETS FOR ASSASSINATION.

MOST OF THEM ARE ALREADY DEAD.

THE VAST MAJORITY.

AND THIS IS PURE RETRIBUTION.

YOUR QUESTION IS DOES IT HELP, IS IT MAKING THE WORLD A BETTER PLACE?

IN SOME CASES IT DID, IN SOME CASES IT DIDN'T.

WHEN THIS WAS, I THINK THE RULINGS, WHEN THIS WAS THE TARGET AND NOT A TOOL THAT WAS USED IN ORDER TO REACH THE TARGET OR THE GOAL, IT NEVER WORKED.

THIS IS I THINK THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS WAR.

THEY WENT WITH GREAT INTELLIGENCE, PRECISION WEAPON WITH A LOT OF INTRUSION.

BUT WHEN YOU ASK THE PEOPLE INVOLVED WHAT IS THE GOAL, WHAT IS THE EXIT STRATEGY, HOW WOULD YOU KNOW?

WHAT IS NEXT EXCEPT FOR MORE AND MORE TARGETS.

YOU UNDERSTAND THAT IT'S NOT A REGIME CHANGE AND IT'S NOT SECURING THE URANIUM.

IT'S JUST SAYING THAT ISRAEL WON AND THE U.S.

WON AND THAT'S IT.

THERE'S NO OTHER FACTOR.

>> ALL RIGHT.

WELL LISTEN, ALWAYS GREAT TO TALK TO YOU.

INC.

YOU VERY MUCH INDEED.

ALL OF YOUR DEEP KNOWLEDGE OF THE INTELLIGENCE THERE.

RUNNING ON FUMES, DONALD TRUMP DESCRIBING THE SITUATION IN CUBA WITH A MAJOR OIL BLOCKADE CAUSING A SPIRALING HUMANITARIAN CRISIS.

LONG-LASTING POWER CUTS TO FOOD SHORTAGES AND A ONCE VAULTED HEALTHCARE SYSTEM COLLAPSING.

TRUMP IS THREATENING A TAKEOVER.

CUBA SAYS IT IS OPEN TO TALKS.

SO WHAT NEXT?

PRESIDENT OBAMA FAMOUSLY RE- ESTABLISHED DIPLOMATIC TIES IN 2015 BEFORE TRUMP REVERSED COURSE.

JEFFREY DELIVERED THIS SERVED AS ACTING AMBASSADOR TO CUBA FOR TWO YEARS AND HE IS JOINING ME NOW FROM NEW YORK.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

>> THANKS VERY MUCH.

GOOD TO BE WITH YOU.

>> NEXT STOP CUBA ACCORDING TO THE ADMINISTRATION.

HOW DO YOU THINK THAT WOULD UNFOLD?

>> I THINK CLEARLY IT WILL BE THE NEXT STOP IF THE PRESIDENT CONTINUES TO TALK ABOUT IT.

THE SECRETARY OF STATE CONTINUES TO TALK ABOUT IT.

WE HEAR THAT THERE ARE CONVERSATIONS OR NEGOTIATIONS GOING ON BETWEEN U.S.

OFFICIALS AND MEMBERS OF THE CASTRO FAMILY.

IT FEELS TO ME LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT A DEPLOYMENT OF THE VENEZUELAN MODEL.

TALKING TO INDIVIDUALS.

WE ALSO HEAR THAT THE PRESIDENT OF CUBA SHOULD STEP ASIDE OR IS A PROBLEM FOR THE GOAL THE U.S.

WANTS TO PROMOTE.

SO CLEARLY THEY ARE LOOKING FOR CHANGE.

PERSONALLY I DON'T REALLY LIKE THE NOTION OF USING HUMANITARIAN A SUFFERING AS A POLITICAL TOOL FOR CHANGE.

BUT THIS IS WHERE WE ARE.

>> LET ME JUST PLAY YOU WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID THIS WEEK ABOUT THIS.

AND YOU SAID THE VENEZUELAN MODEL, SOME OF THE THINGS HE IS SAYING ABOUT IRAN.

HERE'S WHAT HE SAID ABOUT CUBA.

>> MAYBE A FRIENDLY TAKEOVER, IT MAY NOT BE A FRIENDLY TAKEOVER.

IT WOULDN'T MATTER.

THEY ARE DOWN TO THEY SAY FUMES.

THEY HAVE NO ENERGY, THEY HAVE NO MONEY.

THEY ARE IN DEEP TROUBLE.

ON A HUMANITARIAN BASIS.

>> YOU SPOKE ABOUT HOW A FRIENDLY TAKEOVER WOULD WORK, YOU MENTIONED VENEZUELA.

HOW IS THAT WORKING?

IF WE GET INTO WHETHER IT IS VIABLE IN CUBA, HOW IS IT WORKING NOW SEVERAL MONTHS LATER IN VENEZUELA?

>> THE IDEA, I BELIEVE, WAS STABILIZATION, RECOVERY AND TRANSITION.

WE DON'T REALLY HEAR VERY MUCH ABOUT TRANSITION AND WE DON'T REALLY HEAR VERY MUCH ABOUT DEMOCRACY OR HUMAN RIGHTS.

SO I THINK WE'RE JUST GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS.

BUT YOU MENTIONED IRAN BEFORE.

THAT WAS YOUR EARLIER SEGMENT AND I SEE KIND OF A PATTERN.

WE HAD TRUMP'S FIRST ADMINISTRATION TORE IT UP.

NOT TOO MUCH PROGRESS WAS MADE BETWEEN THEN AND NOW AND LOOK WHERE WE ARE WITH IRAN?

SAME THING WITH CUBA.

WE HAD I THOUGHT A GOOD APPROACH UNDERWAY.

TRUMP 1.0 TORE THAT UP AS WELL AND NOW LOOK WHERE WE ARE.

>> IT IS, WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE REAL AIM?

I GUESS I'M GOING TO PLAY YOU THE CUBAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER WHO TOLD THIS PROGRAM THAT THEY DON'T REPRESENT ANY UNUSUAL OR EXTRAORDINARY THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

THIS IS WHAT HE SAID.

>> CUBA POSES NO THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

IS NOT AGGRESSIVE COME IT'S NOT HOSTILE, IT DOESN'T HARBOR TERRORISM NOR SPONSORS TERRORISM.

THERE ARE NO FOREIGN MILITARY BASES IN CUBA CONTRARY TO WHAT IS ALLEGED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ONE EXISTING IN GUANTANAMO FOR THE U.S.

BASE.

CUBA HAS NO TRAFFIC AND DRUGS OR ILLEGAL DRUGS THAT WOULD HARM THE UNITED STATES.

THERE IS ORGANIZED CRIME IN CUBA NOR ORGANIZED CRIME USES CUBA AS A PLATFORM AGAINST UNITED STATES.

SO THE ALLEGATIONS THAT THEY USED ARE NOT TRUTHFUL.

>> DO YOU AGREE WITH THE DESCRIPTION AND DO YOU AGREE THEY ARE NOT A THREAT?

>> I WOULD SAY THAT THEY DON'T BELONG ON THE TERRORIST LIST.

DURING THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WE MADE A THOROUGH REVIEW AND FOUND THEY DIDN'T BELONG ON THE TERRORIST LIST.

THIS NOTION OF UNUSUAL AND IMMEDIATE THREAT I ALSO THINK IS AN EXAGGERATION BUT IT FEELS TO ME LIKE IT'S THE ADMINISTRATION IS LAYING SOME SORT OF LEGAL JUSTIFICATION.

I THINK THE CURRENT MINISTRATION IS FOLLOWING A LONG-STANDING POLICY OF ISOLATION AND REGIME CHANGE.

IF YOU WILL.

AND FRANKLY AGAIN, NOT TO CONTINUE TO REFER TO THE PAST BUT DURING THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION I THOUGHT WE HAD DEVELOPED A GOOD APPROACH THAT WAS GOOD FOR THE CUBAN PEOPLE AND ALSO WAS GOOD FOR THE SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES.

>> YOU SAY GOOD FOR THE CUBAN PEOPLE AS YOU KNOW THE DIASPORA WILL HAVE A LOT TO SAY ABOUT THAT.

BECAUSE THEY ARE VERY FERVENTLY BELIEVE THAT WHAT'S BEST FOR THE CUBAN PEOPLE IS NOT TO HAVE THE CASTRO REGIME OR REMNANTS OR POST CASTRO REGIME.

THAT THEY WANT FREEDOM AND ABILITY TO TRAVEL AND AN ECONOMY THAT CAN SUSTAIN THEM.

WHICH THEY DON'T HAVE.

SO, IT IS A VERY BIZARRE SET OF RULES AND NEW PROCESS THAT IS UNFOLDING UNDER THE TRUMP 2.0.

NONE OF WHICH ARE PERMITTED UNDER EITHER INTERNATIONAL LAW OR U.S.

LAW.

SO AGAIN, IS THERE ANYTHING THAT MIGHT COME OF AN INTERVENTION IN CUBA?

WHAT DO YOU THINK A FRIENDLY TAKEOVER OR NON-FRIENDLY TAKEOVER AS TRUMP SAYS COULD LOOK LIKE?

>> I THINK WHAT THE AMERICANS ARE INTERESTED IN OBVIOUSLY IS SOME FORM OF REGIME CHANGE.

I THINK IT'S IRONIC THAT THE SECRETARY OF STATE IS TALKING ABOUT THE NEED FOR THIS TO MOVE SLOWLY AS IT IS IN VENEZUELA.

LET'S START WITH ECONOMIC REFORMS WHICH HONESTLY SOUNDS LIKE A MORE COERCIVE VARIANT OF WHAT OBAMA 2.0 POLICY WOULD LOOK LIKE.

BUT CERTAINLY IF THE TWO GOVERNMENTS ARE GOING TO NEGOTIATE THAT'S BETTER THAN NOT.

>> BUT AMBASSADOR, I JUST WANT TO STOP YOU THERE BECAUSE THIS IS A PROBLEM.

BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS SAID IT WANTS TO TALK TO THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES BUT HASN'T COME IT HASN'T GOT THE GO-AHEAD.

INSTEAD OF SECRETARY RUBIO'S OFFICE IS TALKING TO A FAMILY MEMBER OF CASTRO.

OF RAUL CASTRO'S.

WHAT IS THAT ABOUT?

>> WELL, I WOULD SAY WE ARE GETTING MIXED SIGNALS BECAUSE ON THE ONE HAND WE HAVE HEARD THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS TALKING TO MEMBERS OF THE CASTRO FAMILY AND NAMELY THE GRANDSON OF RAUL CASTRO.

I ALSO HAD HEARD THAT THERE WERE A COUPLE OF MEMBERS OF THE CUBAN FOREIGN MINISTRY WHO WERE IN ST.

KITTS ON THE MARGINS OF THE CONFERENCE AT WHICH ALLEGEDLY CONVERSATIONS TOOK PLACE BETWEEN RAUL CASTRO'S GRANDSON AND U.N.

OFFICIALS.

SO IT COULD BE THAT WE ARE SEEING A MERGER OF BOTH.

ON THE OTHER HAND, WE HEAR FROM CUBAN-AMERICAN MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, THERE ARE NO NEGOTIATIONS, IT'S JUST A CONVERSATION.

SO IT'S HARD TO KNOW.

BUT MY GUESS IS THAT THERE ARE CONVERSATIONS UNDERWAY AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THIS PLAYS OUT.

BUT HONESTLY TO ME THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS THE PLIGHT OF THE CUBAN PEOPLE.

WHO ARE ENDURING HUMANITARIAN CRISIS THEY'VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE.

>> SO GIVE US A LITTLE DETAIL BECAUSE THE KREMLIN ANNOUNCED PLANS TO PROVIDE HAVANA WITH ALL THE AVAILABLE POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT BUT TRUMP SAYS CUBA IS IN ITS LAST MOMENTS OF LIFE.

ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE.

BUT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN.

GIVE ME AN IDEA OF WHAT THE PEOPLE THERE ARE SUFFERING.

>> I DID SEE A REPORT THAT SUGGESTED A RUSSIAN OIL TANKER ALTHOUGH FLAGGED UNDER THE GRENADINES ARRIVED A COUPLE DAYS AGO AND IT WAS CURIOUS TO ME THAT THAT WAS NOT STOPPED.

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS AUTHORIZED MEMBERS OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO IMPORT OIL I THINK BECAUSE THEY WANT TO AVERT A HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE THAT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN EYESHOT.

BUT SCHOOLS HAVE CLOSED, THERE IS NO TRAFFIC ON THE ROAD, GARBAGE ISN'T BEING PICKED UP, LIFE IS VERY TOUGH.

FOOD SHORTAGES.

AND THE REST.

AND AGAIN, AS SOMEONE WHO REPRESENTED THE UNITED STATES FOR OVER 30 YEARS, TO SEE US CONTRIBUTE IN TO THIS HUMANITARIAN SITUATION, I FIND VERY UNCOMFORTABLE.

>> AND WHAT ABOUT IF THERE WAS A REGIME COLLAPSE AND OBVIOUSLY WHEN THERE IS THERE IS A HUGE EXODUS.

PEOPLE JUST FLEE AS SOON AS THEY POSSIBLY CAN.

AND THERE'S BEEN A HUGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE LEAVING CUBA SINCE 2021 ROUGHLY 1 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE MIGRATED.

THAT IS 10% OF CUBA'S POPULATION.

WHICH IS WORSE ANYTHING THAT HAPPENED IN THE 1980S ET CETERA.

THE CLOSEST THEY ARE GOING TO GET IS TO THE U.S.. HOW WILL THE U.S.

DEAL WITH THAT?

THEY ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HISTORIC DEPORTATION, COERCIVE DEPORTATION PROGRAM.

AND YET YOU ARE SAYING THAT THEIR POLICIES COULD FORCE THE REVERSE WHEN IT COMES TO CUBA.

>> WELL, IT IS AN IRONY.

IF YOU WILL.

AND CERTAINLY THE IMMIGRATION POLICIES OF THE UNITED STATES ARE DIFFERENT.

AND HISTORICALLY THIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE REACTIONS TO DIFFICULT TIMES ON THE ISLAND WHICH IS MASS MIGRATION.

PERHAPS WHAT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME IS THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT ROUTES TO LEAVE.

MEXICO, SPAIN, OTHERS, ALTHOUGH THESE OF COURSE COST QUITE A BIT OTHER MORE MONEY.

SO I THINK ONE OF THE REASONS THAT THE ADMINISTRATION AUTHORIZED MEMBERS OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO BRING IN OIL AND THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT INCREASED HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE THROUGH THE CHURCH, BUT THIS IS A DROP IN THE BUCKET.

THERE ARE OTHER COUNTRIES HELPING.

SPAIN, MEXICO AND CANADA.

YOU MENTIONED RUSSIA.

SO CLEARLY THE ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO AVOID A HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE.

BUT AGAIN, HOW TO CALIBRATE THAT.

BETWEEN AN OIL BLOCKADE IF YOU WILL AND PREVENTING A CATASTROPHE IS A VERY GOOD QUESTION, AND ANSWER TO WHICH I DON'T HAVE.

>> JUST VERY QUICKLY, TRUMP 1.0 ENVOY FOR IRAN AND CUBA TOLD ME THAT HE THINKS THE ADMINISTRATION WANTS A DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION TO HAPPEN IN VENEZUELA WHILE TRUMP IS PRESIDENT AND EVEN POTENTIALLY THIS YEAR.

AND HE SAYS THE CHANCES ARE GOOD.

YOU SAID YOU HADN'T SEEN ANY EVIDENCE OF THAT TRANSITION EVEN BEING STARTED.

HOW WOULD YOU REACT TO ELLIOTT ABRAMS?

>> I WOULD SAY IT'S WISHFUL THINKING.

YOU HAVE THE ENTIRE VENEZUELAN REGIME STILL INTACT MINAS MADURO.

AND THERE ARE GOING TO NEED TO BE A LOT OF CHANGES AND TWISTS AND TURNS BEFORE WE GET TO THAT POINT WHERE THERE ARE DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS.

I HOPE I'M WRONG BUT I DON'T THINK SO.

>> AMBASSADOR JEFFREY DELAURENTIS INC.

YOU VERY MUCH INDEED FOR JOINING US.

>> YOU'RE VERY WELCOME.

THANK YOU.

>> AS WE'VE SEEN, THE WAR WITH IRAN IS HITTING THE FINANCIAL SECTOR.

TEHRAN HAS DECLARED IT WILL GO AFTER ECONOMIC CENTERS AFTER ONE OF ITS OWN BANKS WAS TARGETED IN A STRIKE.

THIS AS OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO SKYROCKET, SPARKING FEARS OF A RECESSION.

KNOWS ABOUT NAVIGATING TIMES IN GREAT UNCERTAINTY IS THE FORMER CEO OF GOLDMAN SACHS.

HE LED THE COMPANY THROUGH THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS.

HIS NEW MEMOIR "STREETWISE" LOOKS BACK ON HIS HUMBLE BEGINNINGS AND RISE TO THE TOP OF THE CAREER LADDER.

HE SHARES HIS REFLECTIONS WITH WALTER ISAACSON.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE .

WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU WALTER.

HAPPY TO BE HERE.

>> IN YOUR GREAT NEW MEMOIR YOU TALK ABOUT 17, 18 YEARS AGO.

THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS.

HOW YOU GUYS GOT GOLDMAN SACHS TRUITT BUT YOU ALSO SAY WE ARE DUE FOR ANOTHER ONE AND YOU TALK ABOUT KINDLING BEING ON THE GROUND AND A SPARK COULD SET IT OFF.

IS $90 BARREL OIL AND FOUR DOLLARS OF GASOLINE AT THE PUMP, IS THAT THE SPARK THAT COULD SET IT OFF?

>> YOU KNOW, I DON'T THINK SO BUT ONE NEVER THINKS SO.

THAT'S THE NATURE OF A SPARK.

WE HAVEN'T HAD A RECKONING FOR A LONG TIME WHICH TO ME MEANS THE DISCIPLINE THAT ONE APPLIES AFTER YOU HAVE A CRISIS STAYS WITH YOU FOR A WHILE AND THEN IT STARTS TO EBB OVER TIME.

USUALLY IT HAPPENS EVERY FOUR OR FIVE YEARS BUT THIS HAS BEEN AN EXCEPTIONAL PERIOD.

WE HAVEN'T HAD IT FOR A WHILE.

SO USUALLY DISCIPLINE RELAXES, AT SOME POINT THERE HAS TO BE KIND OF A RECKONING AND THE LONGER IT TAKES SOMETIMES THE WORSE IT IS.

SOMETIMES THERE IS A TRIGGERING EVENT THAT IF THE KINDLING WASN'T ON THE FLOOR IT WOULD HAVE JUST PASSED UNNOTICED.

BUT AS YOU BUILD UP ALL OF THESE THINGS MAYBE SOMETHING COMES ALONG THAT TRIGGERS IT.

THE NATURE OF A BUBBLE, THE NATURE OF A SPARK IS THAT YOU DON'T ALWAYS PREDICT WHEN IT IS SO IT'S HARD TO TELL BUT I DON'T THINK SO.

THE WAR ITSELF OF WHICH COULD BE PART OF COULD BE IT IN THE LONG RUN BUT I DON'T NECESSARILY THINK SO.

THAT IS NOT MY BASE CASE.

IN FACT, THE VERY SEVERITY OF THE SITUATION MEANS THAT IT'S NOT GOING TO BE GONE FOR A LONG TIME WHICH MEANS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, THIS SITUATION WON'T BE ALLOWED TO PERTAIN.

AND IT'S NOT $90 OIL, IF THIS DOES PERTAIN FOR A LONG TIME YOU'LL BE TALKING ABOUT $130 OIL.

>> WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF IT GOT TO 130 A BARREL?

>> IT RAISES VERY DIFFICULT QUESTIONS FOR PEOPLE BECAUSE SOMETHING LIKE THAT IS JUST ALL BAD ALL AROUND.

BECAUSE HIGHER OIL PRICES WHEN IT SEEPS INTO THE SUPPLY CHAIN IS INFLATIONARY ON THE ONE HAND AND RECESSIONARY ON THE OTHER HAND.

AS THE COST BURDENS RISE FOR PEOPLE.

AND SO THE MOST DREADED TURN IS PROBABLY STAG WHICH MEETS THE TWO ASPECTS YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO ACCOMPLISH AND USUALLY IN OPPOSITION ARE ON THE SAME WRONG SIDE.

HIGHER INFLATION AND LOWER GROWTH TOGETHER IS A KIND OF A VERY, VERY BAD SITUATION.

WHAT DO YOU DO?

YOU TRY TO REMEDY THE INFLATION BY RAISING RATES OR DO YOU TRY TO REMEDY THE LOW GDP SIDE BY LOWERING RATES IN RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS?

AND SO THAT IS A VERY POOR SITUATION TO BE IN AND ONE TRIES TO AVOID THAT.

>> THERE'S BEEN ABOUT 4% GROWTH IN THE ECONOMY IN THE PAST BUT HALF OF THAT DOES SEEM TO BE FROM A.I.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE COMPLEX INVESTMENT.

HOW MUCH DOES THAT WERE YOU?

>> AGAIN, I AM IN THE WORRY BUSINESS.

I THINK IT IS SOMETHING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT BUT I THINK IF YOU ASK ME WHAT MY BASE CASE IS I THINK IT'S ABSOLUTELY TRUE.

I KNOW THERE'S A LOT OF CONCERN ABOUT A.I.

WHETHER THE EXPENDITURES WILL BE JUSTIFIED BY THE REVENUE.

THERE'S A LOT OF CONCERN ABOUT A.I.

BECAUSE THERE IS A WORRY IT WILL REDUCE EMPLOYMENT IN THE COUNTRY.

LOOK, ONCE THE GENIE IS OUT OF THE BOTTLE IT'S LIKE YOU CAN'T LEARN STUFF.

SO WE ARE GOING TO GO FORWARD WITH THIS, WE MIGHT AS WELL RECONCILE IT.

BUT ON THE WHOLE, I CAN'T BE NEGATIVE ABOUT ANYTHING THAT IS MAKING EVERYONE MORE PRODUCTIVE.

I UNDERSTAND THERE WILL BE DISLOCATION IN THE SHORT-TERM, MAYBE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SOFTWARE JOBS THAT A.I.

CAN DO VERY EFFICIENTLY WITHOUT THE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE THAT HAVE DEDICATED THEMSELVES TO LEARNING THAT.

THERE WILL BE DISLOCATION, HAVE TO LEARN OTHER THINGS, MAYBE SOME PEOPLE WON'T BE ABLE TO BE RETRAINED AND WILL HAVE TO, THE POLITICAL SECTOR WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THAT.

IT WILL BE UP TO THE POLITICAL SECTOR TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFICULTIES AND SEE THAT THAT INCREMENTAL WEALTH THAT GETS CREATED GETS ATTRIBUTED IN A WAY CONSISTENT WITH OUR VALUES.

>> YOU TITLED YOUR BOOK STREETWISE AND I THINK IT HAS A DOUBLE MEANING MEANING THE REALLY ROUGH STREET YOU GREW UP ON IN BROOKLYN AND THEN OF COURSE WALL STREET HAPPENS.

BUT LET ME START IN BROOKLYN, YOU GROW UP IN A HOUSING PROJECT, A SCHOOL THAT IS PRETTY UNSAFE, YOU ARE SCARED TO GO TO THE BATHROOM AT TIMES.

AND YET, YOU CALL THAT CHAPTER, I THINK YOU CALL IT ADVANTAGES.

WHAT WERE THE ADVANTAGES?

>> THERE'S SOME IRONY IN THAT.

I DID GROW UP IN PUBLIC HOUSING, I DID GO TO A HIGH SCHOOL THAT THEY SHUT DOWN AFTER I LEFT AS A FIELD HIGH SCHOOL.

AND I WOULD SAY THE ADVANTAGES OF THAT ARE LOW EXPECTATIONS BY ME AND OF ME AND FOR ME AND SO IT WAS ALSO PRODUCED A LOT OF MOTIVATION TO GET OUT.

AND FRANKLY, MY EARLIEST MOTIVATION THAT I CAN RECALL, NOBODY IN MY FAMILY AND EVEN MY SIBLINGS HAD GONE TO COLLEGE AND I DIDN'T KNOW ANYBODY, NONE OF THE PARENTS THAT I KNEW WENT TO COLLEGE.

I DON'T NUMBER ANYBODY HAVING A SUIT.

VERY BLUE-COLLAR.

NOT NECESSARILY THAT DIFFERENT FROM A LOT OF PEOPLE.

IT WAS VERY MOTIVATING.

>> SO HOW DID YOU GET TO HARVARD?

>> THE THING THAT I WAS REACHING FOR, THE CARROTS THAT I WAS REACHING FOR WAS TO GO TO A OUT-OF-TOWN SCHOOL.

I WASN'T CONTEMPLATING IVY LEAGUE.

I CAN'T EVEN RECALL WHETHER I EVEN KNEW WHAT THAT WAS BUT I DID GO TO A COLLEGE NIGHT AT HIGH SCHOOL IN A NICER NEIGHBORHOOD.

I WENT IN, NOBODY WAS CHECKING I.D.S, THERE WAS NO METAL DETECTOR IN THOSE DAYS GETTING INTO NEW YORK CITY PUBLIC SCHOOLS AND THERE WERE VARIOUS BOOTHS AND I CROSSED THE BOOTH THAT WAS OCCUPIED BY I THOUGHT IT WAS A GROWN-UP AND IT WAS PROBABLY A YOUNG GUY, HE WAS FROM HARVARD.

THERE WERE PEOPLE THERE FROM OTHER IVY LEAGUE SCHOOLS.

I TOOK AN APPLICATION AND WE CHATTED, HE COULDN'T HAVE BEEN NICER AND I THINK I FILLED OUT THAT APPLICATION LIKE YOU WOULD FILL OUT A LANDING FORM IF YOU GOT OFF AN AIRPLANE.

THERE WERE QUESTIONS AND I WROTE ANSWERS TO THEM.

I DIDN'T APPROACH IT LIKE I WOULD A TEST TODAY KNOWING WHAT I KNOW TODAY.

AND SOMEHOW THEY TOOK ME WHICH IS WHY I'M GRATEFUL.

I DIDN'T GET INTO EVERY SCHOOL BUT I DID GET INTO THAT ONE AND THAT WAS A GOOD ONE TO GET INTO.

AND IT WAS CULTURE SHOCK WHEN I GET THERE.

I'M NOT SURE IT WAS A GREAT PLACE FOR ME TO GO GIVEN THE ADJUSTMENTS I HAD TO MAKE BUT I'LL TELL YOU, IT WAS A GREAT PLACE TO HAVE GONE FOR ALL THE DOORS THAT GOT OPENED.

BY THE TIME I WAS DONE WITH FOUR YEARS I SHOULD HAVE STARTED THEN.

I WAS THEN PREPARED TO FIRST GET INTO HARVARD AS A RESULT OF MY FOUR YEARS.

THERE WAS SOME DIFFICULTY.

BUT I LABELED IT ADVANTAGES BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW.

I DIDN'T HAVE TO SOURCE MY MOTIVATION.

AT THIS POINT IN MY LIFE I KNOW A LOT OF COMFORTABLE AND WEALTHY PEOPLE AND THERE'S A LOT OF TO BE OR NOT TO BE.

ANXIETY ABOUT WHAT SHOULD I DO.

AND THOSE ARE PEOPLE WHO HAVE CHOICES.

I DIDN'T REALLY HAVE A CHOICE.

GO FORWARD IF SOMEBODY PAID ME $.25 AN HOUR MORE THAN ANOTHER PERSON, I TOOK THAT JOB.

I WASN'T SITTING THERE WRINGING MY HANDS ABOUT FULFILLMENT AND WHO AM I. AND WHERE DO I WANT TO GO WITH THIS.

THERE'S SOME ADVANTAGES TO HAVING NO CHOICE.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT YOUR DAD, THERE'S A WONDERFUL SCENE WHEN HE RETIRES AND THERE'S A MACHINE WRAPPED IN PLASTIC BEHIND HIM.

WHICH IS A MACHINE THAT CAN SORT THE MAIL BETTER.

WHAT DID YOU THINK AT THAT MOMENT WHEN YOU SAW THE MACHINE THAT COULD REPLACE WHAT YOUR FATHER HAD DONE.

>> BY THEN WHEN MY FATHER WAS RETIRING I WAS I MAY HAVE EVEN BEEN IN GRADUATE SCHOOL AT THAT POINT.

I HAD SEEN MORE OF THE WORLD.

I HAD NEVER SEEN HIS PLACE OF BUSINESS BUT I KNEW HE SAT WITH A BATTERY OF PEOPLE SORTING MAIL AND AT HOME HE WOULD PRACTICE THAT.

HE KNEW THE NAME OF EVERY VILLAGE.

EVEN PRE-Z.I.P.

CODE.

EVERY VILLAGE IN CONNECTICUT AND WOULD MEMORIZE THESE SO HE COULD SORT THE MAIL.

AND HE WAS RETIRING AND SO WE SNUCK INTO THE POST OFFICE.

I DON'T THINK THEY HAD THE APPARATUS FOR HAVING GOING AWAY PARTIES IN THAT PART OF THE GOVERNMENT.

WHAT IS THIS HUNK OF METAL THAT SEEMS TO STILL BE WRAPS UP?

AND IT WAS AN ELECTRONIC MAIL SORTER THAT WOULD HAVE DONE EVERYTHING EFFICIENTLY, QUICKER, NEVER MAKE A MISTAKE AND THEY JUST KEPT IT THERE BECAUSE IT WAS THE GOVERNMENT.

THEY DIDN'T LAY PEOPLE OFF WHICH IS WHY MY FATHER LIKE THAT JOB BECAUSE EARLIER IN HIS LIFE HE HAD BEEN PRIVATE SECTOR AND HAD BEEN LAID OFF AND LOOKED FOR A JOB.

BUT WHAT A SOUL CRUSHING THING THAT MUST BE TO BE DOING YOUR JOB IN FRONT OF A MACHINE THAT COULD HAVE DONE IT MUCH BETTER, FASTER, MISTAKE FREE.

I KIND OF FELT SAD FOR MY DAD.

>> I LISTEN TO YOUR TALK ABOUT YOUR DAD, IT MAKES ME THINK OF A REALLY LARGE QUESTION WHICH IS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF AN ECONOMY?

TO CREATE WEALTH AND CREATE GROWTH, BUT OTHERS MIGHT SAY NO, IT'S TO CREATE DIGNITY.

IT'S TO CREATE A GOOD SOCIETY.

>> WHAT THE ECONOMY HAS TO DO IS TWO THINGS.

IT HAS TO CREATE WEALTH, AND A GOOD ECONOMY HAS TO DISTRIBUTE THAT WEALTH IN A SENSIBLE WAY, IN A FAIRWAY ACCORDING TO THE VALUES OF THAT COMMUNITY.

I WOULD SAY AT THIS POINT WE HAVE DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF CREATING WEALTH.

WE ARE THE BIGGEST ECONOMY IN THE WORLD, USUALLY SIZE AND BIGNESS IS THE ENEMY OF SPRIGHTLY NESTS SPRIGHTLY AND SPEED AND RESILIENCE AND GET OUR ECONOMY WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN GROUND ZERO FOR A LOT OF PROBLEMS, NO ONE RECOVERS FASTER OR REALIZES THEIR MISTAKES FASTER AND REALLOCATE INVESTMENT DOLLARS TO MORE PRODUCTIVE THINGS.

AND SO WE ARE VERY GOOD AT CREATING WEALTH.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME IT'S BEEN POOR INDUSTRY-LEADING THAT BECAUSE THE WEALTH CREATED HAS BEEN MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE VALUE OF ASSET PRICES SO PEOPLE WITH ASSETS ARE GETTING RICHER AND THOSE WITHOUT ASSETS ARE AT BEST STANDING STILL BUT NOT GETTING WEALTHIER BECAUSE THEY DON'T HAVE THE ASSETS GROWING IN VALUE.

SO THE GAP BETWEEN THE RICH ARE AND NOT RICH IS EXPANDING AND CREATING POLARIZATION THAT WE SEE IN THE ECONOMY THAT ALSO HAS INFILTRATED THE POLITICAL ECONOMY.

AND THE POLITICS OF OUR COUNTRY.

BOTH OF THOSE ASPECTS ARE TRUE.

THE LATTER PART IS MORE A FUNCTION OF THE POLITICAL SECTOR.

>> WHAT WOULD YOU DO TO HAVE WEALTH AND EQUALITY REDUCED IN THE POLITICAL SECTOR?

>> THE WAY TO DO THAT ALWAYS IS TO INCREASE THE THINGS THAT GET DISTRIBUTED FOR FREE.

IT COULD BE HEALTHCARE, IT COULD BE CHILDCARE, IT COULD BE EDUCATION FOR YOUNGER THAT SOME PEOPLE PAY FOR BUT THAT OTHERWISE COULD BE SOMETHING THAT IS JUST DISTRIBUTED.

YOU PAY FOR THAT BY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM THAT PEOPLE DON'T HAVE BIG INCOMES DON'T PAY A LOT OF TAXES AND THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BIG INCOMES.

AND I THINK MOST PEOPLE ARE FOR THAT AND A LOT OF THE DEBATE THAT TAKES PLACE THAT IS ANTAGONISTIC TO THAT IS NOT SO MUCH ANTAGONISTIC TO THE PROGRESSIVITY OF THE SYSTEM BUT WHETHER IN FACT THERE IS WASTE AND WE ARE SPENDING MONEY ON STUPID THINGS OR INEFFICIENTLY ON THINGS.

I THINK IT'S APPROPRIATE TO LOOK AT A LOT OF STUFF THAT WE HAVE BEEN PAYING FOR A LONG TIME, THAT A LOT OF BUREAUCRACY HAS BEEN BUILT UPON.

YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU DO WITHOUT UNTIL YOU TRY TO DO WITHOUT.

I THINK FORGIVING IF THE GOVERNMENT DID SOME THINGS AND HAD TO REVERSE COURSE BECAUSE WE DECIDED THAT SOME THINGS THAT WERE IDENTIFIED AS WASTEFUL OR UNNECESSARY TURNED OUT TO BE MORE VALUABLE THAN WE THOUGHT.

BUT I THINK THAT HAS TO BE DONE AND I THINK WHILE YOU ARE DOING THAT WHAT HAS TO BE DONE IS RAISING THE MINIMUM STANDARD OF LIVING FOR PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE RESOURCES.

AND ADDING STUFF TO IT BY PAYING FOR THAT WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE TAX SYSTEM.

>> INCLUDING HEALTHCARE.

>> EVEN HEALTHCARE.

I THINK THAT PEOPLE WILL RAIL AGAINST THE SYSTEM AND MAYBE IT IS WORTH REELING ABOUT.

I'M NOT AN EXPERT ON OBAMACARE AND WE CERTAINLY ARE EXPENDING A LOT MORE MONEY FOR HEALTHCARE THAN OTHER COUNTRIES AT A PERCENT OF OUR MUCH HIGHER GDP AND DON'T NECESSARILY HAVE THE RESULTS TO SHOW IT.

INCLUDING HEALTHCARE.

>> WE TALK ABOUT HOW THE INEQUALITY OF WEALTH THAT COMES FROM GREAT ASSET, GROWTH AND THE BOOMING ECONOMY BUT LEAVING PEOPLE BEHIND HAS LED TO A BACKLASH.

BUT PART OF THAT TOO COMES OUT OF THE CRISIS YOU WRITE ABOUT IN THE BOOK, THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS THAT THERE WAS A PERCEPTION AND PERHAPS REALITY THAT THE BANKS GOT BILLED OUT, THE AVERAGE PERSON DIDN'T.

TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THAT WORK.

>> CERTAINLY, IT CONTRIBUTES TO A SENSE OF THINGS BEING UNFAIR AND BEING RIGGED.

AND IN FACT THE BANKS THAT ACCUMULATED LOTS OF BAD ASSETS KIND OF WENT UNDER AND THE PEOPLE WHO WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THOSE BANKS AT THE END OF THE DAY LOST A LOT OF VALUE BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY THE GOVERNMENT DOESN'T LEND MONEY TO PEOPLE.

AND THE CENTRAL BANK DOESN'T LEND MANY.

THE BANKING SYSTEM DOES.

AND BECAUSE THE BANKING SYSTEM WAS IN DISTRESS ANY MONEY YOU PUT INTO THE BANKS WERE KEPT AND RETAINED BY THE BANKS BECAUSE THEY HAD TO INCREASE BY REGULATION.

THEY HAD TO INCREASE THEIR RESERVES THAT WERE LOST AND HAD BECOME EXHAUSTED.

THE REASON WHY THE FINANCIAL AND RECESSION THAT RESULTED FROM IT LASTED SO LONG WAS BECAUSE IT WAS ALSO A BANKING CRISIS.

AND THE INSTRUMENT BY WHICH INDIVIDUALS GET REACHED AND THE ECONOMY GETS STIMULATED WAS UNDER STRESS AND THAT IS WHY THAT RECESSION LASTED QUITE A LONG TIME.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT BEING AN OUTSIDER.

FEELING LIKE A REAL OUTSIDER AT HARVARD.

DID YOU FEEL LIKE A REAL OUTSIDER THE WHOLE TIME YOU ARE RUNNING GOLDMAN SACHS?

>> I STARTED WRITING THAT POINT BOOK AT A POINT IN WHICH MY LIFE IN EAST NEW YORK, BROOKLYN.

IT WAS A QUARTER OF MY LIFE AND YET THAT QUARTER, I'M NOT A LOT OF THINGS AND I'M NOT A DEVELOPMENT PSYCHIATRIST BUT I CAN TELL YOU BUT I AM A FATHER AND GRANDFATHER AND ICY I THINK YOU GET STAMPED AT A VERY EARLY AGE IN A CERTAIN KIND OF WAY.

THOSE TENDENCIES AND YOU GET FORMED AND YOU CAN LEAN AGAINST THEM.

BUT YOU NEVER ARE WITHOUT THEM.

AND SO I WAS STAMPED A BIT AS SOMEONE WHO WOULD WALK INTO A ROOM AND BE VERY VERY AWARE THAT I WAS DIFFERENT FROM OTHER PEOPLE AND WHAT THAT MEANT.

AND COMING ON FROM THE WRONG SIDE OF THE TRACKS MY NATURAL EMPATHY IS LOOK, I GET INTO A CAR AND THERE IS A DRIVER IN THE FRONT AND WHAT IS HE DOING WITH HIS TIME AND DOES HE HAVE LUNCH, IT MAKES YOU THINK A CERTAIN KIND OF WAY.

MY IDENTIFICATION IS GOING TO BE BORN OUT OF THOSE LIFE EXPERIENCES AND IT'S JUST A VERY FUNNY THING.

THOSE EXPERIENCES AT A VERY EARLY AGE GET STAMPED INDELIBLY AND THEY ARE ON ME.

SO THAT WAS A LONG-WINDED ANSWER SAYING YES, I COULD BE THE CEO OF THE COMPANY AND STILL WALK INTO A ROOM AND KNOW THAT I'M A LITTLE LESS POLISHED THAN THESE PEOPLE.

I AM A LITTLE LESS THIS AND A LITTLE MORE THAT AND THAT REMAINS A PREOCCUPATION FOR YOUR WHOLE LIFE.

I'LL TAKE IT TO MY GRAVE.

>> LLOYD, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>> I ALWAYS LOVE TALKING TO YOU.

THANK YOU.

>> AND FINALLY, SOMEHOW SCIENCE ALWAYS SEES THE OPPORTUNITY TO INNOVATE ALMOST EVERYWHERE.

LATELY AT THE LOCAL FISH MARKET IN SPAIN.

USING THE SKILLS OF READILY AVAILABLE FISH LIKE CARP.

SCIENTISTS ARE ENGINEERING TISSUE FROM THOSE INTO ARTIFICIAL WITH AN EYE ON ENHANCING THEM FOR HUMAN USE.

DOCTORS CURRENTLY LACK OPTIONS TO REPAIR CORNEA DAMAGE WITH SCARCE HUMAN TRANSPLANT AVAILABLE.

BUT THE PROMISING RESULTS FROM UNIVERSITY OF GRANADA PUT AN ACCESSIBLE AND LOW-COST ALTERNATIVE INSIGHT.

THERE IS MORE WORK TO BE DONE BUT FOR NOW IT'S GIVING A WHOLE NEW MEANING TO THE FISHEYE.

THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TODAY.

IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT'S COMING UP EVERY NIGHT, SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER AT PBS.ORG/TRAN04.

THANK YOU FOR WATCHING AND GOODBYE FROM LONDON.

♪ ♪