>> CATHY: PAUL DOUGLAS IS BACK, JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL START OF FALL, WHICH MEANS IT'S TIME TO START THINKING ABOUT WINTER.

WE ALWAYS HAVE A LOT TO COVER SO LET'S GET TO IT.

HEY.

HOW ARE YOU?

>> I'M WELL.

>> Cathy: GOOD.

>> I'M WELL.

>> Cathy: I DON'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT WINTER.

LET US TALK ABOUT FALL, SHALL WE?

>> WINTER WILL BE UNLIKE ANYTHING WE EXPERIENCED LAST YEAR.

BASED ON THIS SUPER EL NINO.

>> Cathy: SO BE NOT AFRAID?

>> WELL, BE A LITTLE AFRAID.

IT'S GOOD TO BE A LITTLE PARANOID.

>> Eric: I THINK IF I COULD SEE A SUNSET, IT WOULD REALLY HELP ME ABSORB THIS SEGMENT.

>> ICTURES?

PICTURES?

YOU NEED PICTURES?

>> Eric: YEAH, LIKE THIS.

LIKE THIS.

>> Cathy: OH, PRETTY.

>> HERE WE GO.

LOOK AT THAT.

AND WHAT A SUMMER IT HAS BEEN.

AND I KNOW WE'RE IN A DROUGHT.

BUT I CAN'T REMEMBER A SUMMER WITH THIS MANY SUNNY LUKEWARM GORGEOUS DAYS.

A REAL SUMMER COMING AFTER A REAL WINTER LAST WINTER, AS YOU MAY RECALL.

YOU MAY REMEMBER WELL.

IT'S ETCHED IN YOUR MEMORY BANKS.

90 INCHES OF SNOW.

THIRD MOST ON RECORD.

32 DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 IN THE METRO.

THAT TIES FOR THE SIXTH MOST ON RECORD SINCE 1871.

AVERAGE IS 13.

AT MSP.

IF ANYBODY ASKS, AND I KIND OF HOPE THEY DON'T, ALMOST THREE DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND OVER SEVEN INCHES DRIER THAN AVERAGE.

THAT DEFICIT THAT WE INHERITED LAST YEAR JUST CONTINUES TO GET WORSE.

WE MAKE LITTLE IMPROVEMENTS, LITTLE BABY STEPS, AND THEN WE BACK BE SLIDE.

AND, OF COURSE -- AND THEN WE BACK SLIDE.

AND, OF COURSE, WE WILL REMEMBER THE AIR QUALITY, THE SMOKE.

ACCORDING TO THE MINNESOTA POLLUTION CONTROL AGENCY, 20 AIR QUALITY ALERTS COVERING 2 DAYS BROKE THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2021 BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENS IN CANADA DOESN'T STAY IN CANADA.

5% OF THE FOREST LAND IN CANADA HAS BURNED.

AN AREA THE SIZE OF FLORIDA.

MUCH OF THAT SMOKE HAS DRIFTED OF OVER MINNESOTA.

THE EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDING NOW, MOST OF THE METRO.

THAT RED STAIN IS EXTREME DROUGHT.

EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, DOWN AROUND, WELL, SOUTH OF ROCHESTER, TOWARDS HARMONY AND LA CRESCENT, CALEDONIA, FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AS DRY AS IT GETS.

SO, YEAH, E NEED RAIN, WE'RE GOING TO GET SOME RAIN THIS WEEKEND, ALLEGEDLY.

HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.

MAYBE A FEW TWO-INCH AMOUNTS.

AND A LOT OF PEOPLE COMPARE THIS -- BY THE WAY, THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE JUST HAD THE HOTTEST SUMMER ON RECORD.

PEOPLE SAY, WELL, IT WAS HOT BACK IN THE DUST BOWL.

AND THAT'S TRUE.

I MEAN, WE SET MANY OF OUR ALL-TIME HEAT RECORDS IN THE 1930s.

BUT CHECK THE HEAT WAS REGIONAL.

IT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THIS TIME AROUND, THE HEATING IS PLANETARY, IT'S GLOBAL.

AND, SO, YOU KNOW, JUST KEEP THAT IN MIND.

THE SCOPE OF THE HEATING IS MUCH MUCH GREATER THAN IT WAS BACK IN THE DUST BOWL.

NOT NLY THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT THE OCEANS.

SO, OF COURSE, WE'RE TRACKING THIS EL NINO EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, BUT MOST OF THE WORLD'S OCEAN BASINS ARE UNUSUALLY WARM.

AND WE'RE NOT EXACTLY SURE WHAT IMPACT THAT IS GOING TO HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.

BUT CERTAINLY STATISTICALLY STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN EL NINO AND MILDER, DRYER WINTERS HERE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AND NOAA SEEMS TO AGREE.

THEIR CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE, SEATTLE, TWIN CITIES, DULUTH, EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.

AND IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, BECAUSE I'M HOPING, YOU KNOW, WE CAN DIG OUT OF THIS DROUGHT, EL NINO TENDS TO FAVOR WETTER WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN U.S., THE GULF OAST, AND THE EAST COAST.

A DRY BIAS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.

SO, WE WILL SEE.

THIS IS A CORRELATION OF EL NINO WITH SNOWFALL.

IT IS GOING TO SNOW THIS WINTER, BUT EVERYTHING IN PURPLE -- BRIAN BRETT SCHNEIDER IS A CLIMATOLOGIST IN ALASKA, AND HE DOES AMAZING THINGS WITH MAPS, AND HE ACTUALLY WANTED TO SHOW, BASED ON PAST L NINOS, WHO'S GOING TO GET MORE SNOW, WHO'S GOING TO GET LESS SNOW.

EVERYTHING IN PURPLE USUALLY CORRELATES WITH ESS SNOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.

SO, WILL WE GET A FEW BIG SNOWSTORMS?

PROBABLY.

BUT I DO NOT THINK WE'RE GOING TO GET 90 INCHES OF SNOW.

MAYBE 45.

SO I'M GOING TO GO OUT ON A LIMB, WINTER HAS BEEN POSTPONED, NOT CANCELED.

ODDS DO, IN FACT, FAVOR A MILDER WINTER, PROBABLY MORE ICING EVENTS.

>> Cathy: OH.

>> MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION.

I KNOW.

THAT'S NOT GOOD NEWS.

I'M CONVINCED A LOT OF PEOPLE MOVE OUT OF MINNESOTA, NOT BECAUSE OF THE SNOW OR THE COLD, BUT THE FEAR OF FALLING ON ICE.

ONE BAD FALL AND IT CAN BE A DOWNWARD SPIRAL.

OF COURSE, YOUR RESULTS MAY VARY.

>> Eric: SO RE WE KIND OF IN LIKE AN OMAHA TYPE OF PATTERN, FREEZING RAIN AS MUCH AS SNOW, FREEZE/THAW CYCLE?

>> YEAH, WE'RE SEEING MORE OF THAT.

Dr. MARK SEELEY POINTED OUT A STATISTIC THAT I CONTINUE TO CITE, SINCE THE TURN OF THE CENTURY, SINCE 2000, MID-WINTER RAIN AND ICE EVENTS, FOUR TIMES MORE LIKELY.

SO, YOU KNOW, OUR CLIMATE IS STILL HARSH, WE WILL HAVE WINTER.

BUT THE WINTERS ARE TRENDING MILDER OVERALL.

WE'RE NOT SEEING THE OLUME OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR WEEK AFTER WEEK BELOW ZERO THAT WE DID IN THE '60s AND '70s, EVEN THE EARLY '80s.

AND WE ARE SEEING ORE OF THESE JAW-DROPPING JANUARY RAIN EVENTS.

SO I THINK WE'LL HAVE A FEW MORE OF THOSE AND, AGAIN, I JUST CAN'T EE ANY SCENARIO WHERE WE GET 90 INCHES OF SNOW.

>> Cathy: BECAUSE FALL ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND -- >> YES.

>> Cathy: -- ARE WE TO ASSUME THAT WE'RE ALL DONE NOW WITH 90s?

>> NO.

90, YES.

>> Cathy: 80s?

>> 80s, I THINK WE'LL SEE 80s THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF OCTOBER.

IT'S GOING TO BE IN THE '-- 70s NEXT WEEK AFTER THE RAIN SUBSIDIZED AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS AND OTHERS HINTING AT 80s THE FIRST FEW DAYS.

SO IT'S A CRAZY TIME, RIGHT, BECAUSE YOU'VE GOT JACKETS AND SWEATSHIRTS AND SHORTS AND FLIP FLOPS.

AS I MENTIONED IN THE "STAR TRIBUNE," I LIKE MY EGGS SCRAMBLED, NOT MY SEASONS.

IT IS DISORIENTING TO BE GAZING UP AT FALL FOLIAGE WEARING FLIP FLOPS.

>> Cathy: YEAH, TRUE.

>> Eric: YOU WERE FULL OF INFORMATION.

>> Cathy: AS ALWAYS.