- Coming up on "Austin InSight," the race for U.S.

Senate in Texas is becoming one of the most talked about in the nation, a closer look at the candidates.

Plus, an in-depth data report on enrollment trends in local public schools.

"Austin InSight" starts right now.

- [Announcer] Support for "Austin InSight" comes from Sally and James Gavin, and also from Daniel L. Skret.

(gentle upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music ends) - Hello, and thanks for joining us.

I'm Laura Laughead.

The new year brings a midterm election cycle that will likely dominate headlines for much of 2026.

Here in Texas, the redrawing of congressional district lines touched off a national redistricting battle with an uncertain outcome.

Also, the U.S.

Senate race here definitely is one to watch.

On the Republican side, four-term incumbent John Cornyn faces a vigorous challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Houston-area Congressman Wesley Hunt.

Five other lesser-known candidates are also on the ballot.

Meanwhile, Democrats will choose between Dallas-area Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico, whose district covers Austin and Round Rock, or from four other candidates.

For a better understanding of the significance of this race, we spoke with Gabby Birenbaum, Washington correspondent for, nonprofit media outlet, "The Texas Tribune."

Gabby, thanks so much for being with us.

- Thanks so much for having me.

- So let's talk about the Republican primary first.

There are 10 candidates total, but the front-runners, Paxton and Cornyn, they are off to a nasty start with scathing videos attacking each other.

Why do you think they've taken this approach, and do you expect it to continue?

- Yeah, I mean this is absolutely a primary that's gotten into the mud pretty quickly, right?

I think we saw Paxton come out the gate criticizing Senator Cornyn for being sort of insufficiently conservative.

He feels like he's not tapped into the MAGA base.

Senator Cornyn I think you also have to remember (audio pauses) attorney general, Senator Cornyn was also attorney general over 20 years ago of Texas.

So, you know, this is an office that's very meaningful to him.

I think it's fair to say he has not approved of some of the ways that Paxton has run that office.

He's been quick to criticize Paxton, you know, for some of the things that came up in his impeachment trial, bribery allegation (audio distorts).

So, yeah, this is a primary that turned nasty very quickly.

And then, you add in the entry of Congressman Wesley Hunt, sort of a dark-horse candidate.

He has been quick to criticize Senator Cornyn as well on all manner of platforms, you know, doing a sort of digital tour criticizing him for various votes for having been in the Senate.

So you have a primary that, you know, the candidates have not shied away from direct attacks.

- And a key point of these videos attacking each other seems to be essentially trying to out-Trump each other, so to speak, in claiming support for or perhaps from the president.

Let's take a look at some of their campaign videos.

- President Trump needs a partner who's battle tested to restore law and order, cut taxes and spending, and take back our jobs and supply chains.

The radical left thinks they can flip Texas blue, stop President Trump, and reverse the America-first agenda.

But Texans have a message for them, come and take it.

- [Narrator] Ken Paxton is the conservative fighter they couldn't cancel.

- An attorney general who has really led the way.

Somebody who has been brave and strong, Ken Paxton.

- [Narrator] Ken Paxton is America's most conservative attorney general.

Now, Ken Paxton is running for Senate to stand with President Trump and help him make America great again.

- But Trump at this point has not endorsed either of them.

How important is that to Republican primary voters in this election?

- Yeah, I think in the absence of President Trump's endorsement, you have candidates trying to fill in (audio distorts) drawing their own connections to President Trump.

I mean, I'm sure anybody in Texas, right, has seen Senator Cornyn's ads all over TV talking about how his voting record is 99% with the president, right?

You know, pictures of him and the president together, videos.

I think it matters a great deal if the president weighs in or not.

I think, you know, he's said as much.

I think, you know, we've seen in polling, the president's endorsement absolutely does move voters, MAGA-based voters.

At the same time, I think each of these candidates does already sort of have a base of support, none of which is enough to get to that 50% without a primary, without a runoff, excuse me.

That's what we've seen in polling.

But I think certainly the president's team is following the race very closely.

And don't mistake, right, the lack of endorsement for a lack of interest.

- Do you think the Democratic candidate will ultimately benefit from Republicans taking this approach?

- Yeah, I mean, I think the one thing that Democrats have going for them right now is going to be time.

There are two major Democratic candidates, James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett.

The expectation, right, is that one of them will emerge without needing to go to a runoff.

We'll know who the winner is on March 3rd in all likelihood.

And then, that gives them two extra months while Republicans are still fighting each other, more than two months, almost three months to fundraise, to start pivoting towards the general election, and start making a general election pitch while Republicans are still battling each other.

Obviously, it's still gonna be an uphill battle for any Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas, right?

It's been over 30 years.

But (audio pauses) thing the Democrats will have going for them, in that case, likely, is those extra few months of fundraising and campaigning for a general.

- And let's switch gears now.

You brought up the two front-runners of the Democratic race.

Those are, of course, you know, Crockett and Talarico.

But Talarico right now is perhaps less known than Crockett, but still has an enormous social media presence.

What are you hearing from party insiders about this choice?

- Yeah, this is gonna be a really interesting primary.

I think you have two candidates that have different strengths.

I think, you know, Congresswoman Crockett is an enormously (audio distorts) among the Democratic base.

Super well known, has really high-name ID, despite only having been a congresswoman, this is her second term, right?

She's talked about she wants to expand the electorate.

She feels like she can reach voters who are apathetic, who don't care about the process, and turn out, you know, infrequent voters to challenge a Republican.

Representative Talarico in the State House, right, I think he's sort of talked about building bridges, building coalitions, being able to reach out to Latino voters in South Texas, for example, bring in voters who've maybe been shifting away from the party, or bring in the Republicans that, ultimately, any Democrat, to win statewide, will need.

Both candidates, right, very online, very connected to new media.

And I think it'll be an interesting test of, you know, where the Democratic base is in Texas, a base that's sort of been clamoring (audio distorts).

And I think both of those candidates can sort of take up that mantle in different ways, and have tried to.

- And their styles are definitely quite different.

Let's take a look at some of their videos.

- [Trump] You have this woman, Crockett, she's a very low-IQ person.

I watched her speak the other day, she's definitely a low-IQ person.

Crockett, oh man, oh man.

She's a very low-IQ person.

Somebody said the other day, "She's one of the leaders of the party."

I said, "You gotta be kidding."

Now, they're gonna rely on Crockett.

Crockett's gonna bring them back.

- The biggest divide in our country is not left versus right.

It's top versus bottom.

- Yeah!

(attendees clapping) - Billionaires want us looking left and right at each other so that we're not looking up at them.

The people at the top work so hard to keep us angry and divided, because our unity is a threat to their wealth and their power.

- You see Crockett going to the, so-called, elephant in the room, with the Trump sound bites in her video there.

How important will the president's approval rating be in the general election?

Some polling shows he's underwater, even here in Texas, and trending downward.

- Yeah, I mean, it'll be interesting to see what Trump's approval rating is come November.

I do think, you know, this is a state that just in (audio distorts), President Trump won by 14 points, right?

And so Crockett has taken her share of criticism for immediately drawing the contrast between herself and President Trump, noting that she's a frequent target of President Trump, because necessarily to win a statewide race in Texas, you are going to need to win over some voters who voted for Trump.

What percentage that is (audio distorts) looks, and if, you know, Congresswoman Crockett can bring out those new voters that she says she can.

But, yeah, I mean, you know, particularly in South Texas, as we see with Latino voters sort of turning on Trump over, you know, deportations and the economy, as we see voters increasingly frustrated over affordability, we have seen Trump's approval rating start to slide everywhere, in Texas as well.

But, you know, make no mistake, this is a state that voted for him by a large margin in 2024.

And no matter where his exact approval rating falls, I think we know that the Democratic base is energized to turn out.

And it might depend, you know, can more of the (audio distorts) who were not necessarily the MAGA base but voted for Trump in 2024, do they turn out?

And if so, who did they vote for I think will be the critical point there.

- Well, we certainly have two very interesting races that will be tight with the Republicans and the Democrats.

But, again, with another similarity of so many other lesser known candidates on the ballot, you mentioned runoff, are we potentially seeing a runoff in both the Republican side and on the Democratic side?

- I mean, I think it's a near certainty on the Republican side given that you have three high-profile candidates, two who are statewide office holders, and one, Wesley Hunt, who's a (audio distorts) who's been all up on TV and in media.

I think it's less likely on the Democratic side, because you only have two, you know, major candidates, but it's not impossible.

I mean, it certainly could happen.

- Gabby, certainly, two very compelling primary elections that have captured the nation's attention already and will continue to do so.

Thank you for sharing your insights.

Early voting gets underway about six weeks from now on February 17th.

- Thanks for having me.

(gentle upbeat music) - Turning to education now, the future of three Austin middle schools with low performance ratings could be decided as soon as this month.

Dobie, Webb, and Burnet Middle Schools started the year under state-mandated turnaround plans after years of low STAAR test scores.

The AISD Board of Trustees is deciding whether those campuses will partner with a charter school next year, that would give the schools more time to improve test scores and prevent a potential takeover of the district by the TEA.

The new principal at Dobie Middle School, Mike Walker, spoke with our community journalism program, Decibel, about the hurdles they face with declining enrollment, standardized tests, and staffing changes.

- I think the top priority for me, literally, was staffing.

When I first got here at the end of July, we needed probably 25 teachers.

When the school year kicked off, we still had a couple of positions.

However, kind of based on enrollment and everything like that, we still wound up being, you know, pretty much whole.

You been all right today?

- Yeah.

- Our enrollment is down.

Last year, I think at the beginning of the year, there might have been close to 500 students, give or take.

Right now, we're right about 400 students.

- With these turnaround plans in progress, Dobie and several other schools avoided making the list of 10 schools that will close next year as Austin ISD begins implementing a transformative consolidation plan, blamed in part on declining enrollment.

But why are there fewer students in traditional public schools in a fast-growing city like Austin?

That's the focus of a two-part special report on student population trends from our data reporter, Meredith Roberts.

(gentle music) - The same as like draft one, draft two, draft three, and this is just the draft made right before 2:00 AM.

- After hours of debate, Austin ISD voted to close 10 schools because of rising education costs, inadequate state funding, and budget shortfalls.

But the other big reason is declining enrollment.

Despite growth in the city, AISD has lost 10,000 students over the last 10 years, and it's driving big changes in the district.

(gentle music) But where did these kids go?

(gentle music continues) (gentle music fades) To see why kids aren't here now, we have to go back in time.

(gentle music) - It's a good question.

So I think-- - [Meredith] David DeMatthews, a professor in the College of Education at the University of Texas at Austin, says the pandemic had a great effect on education.

- The pandemic has exacerbated many of the deeply-rooted inequalities and many of the challenges that we had previously in our education system here in Texas and also in the United States, and really around the world.

- [Meredith] During the pandemic, Austin ISD lost over 6,000 students in just one school year, dropping from nearly 81,000 to almost 75,000 in the 2020 to 2021 school year.

- Was a dip in enrollment in 2021, 2022.

And then, there was a little bit of a rebound.

- [Meredith] Victoria O'Neal is the executive director of Campus and Family Engagement at AISD, and she has been studying student enrollment.

She says the pandemic is no longer a factor in low enrollment.

- What I think we're seeing now is a natural kind of like organic process as opposed to continuing to be related to the pandemic.

- However, total enrollment since the pandemic hasn't recovered.

Although high school enrollment has stayed steady, every other grade has decreased.

Pre-K has lost the most students with the biggest drop from 2020 to 2021.

This means that Austin ISD has fewer students in every grade to advance as they get older.

In the 2024 to 2025 school year, Austin ISD had a total of just over 72,000 students.

O'Neal also says that many students have left Austin.

- My department did do an analysis of some recent data for kids who have left Austin ISD.

Two-thirds of them were actually, like, leaving the reach of Austin ISD.

And in that one-third, it was a mix of virtual school, homeschool, and charter school.

So they either moved their residents into another part of Texas, they moved to another state, or they moved internationally.

- Another reason for low enrollment, there just aren't as many kids running around.

According to Austin ISD's demographics report for the 2024 to 2025 school year, declining birth rates have also been a factor.

But DeMatthews says that doesn't entirely account for the enrollment dip.

- We're seeing a decline in birth rates across the United States.

With that, still we see districts, especially in states like Texas or Florida, there's still fast-growth districts, so there's still districts where families are moving into.

You have fast-growth districts that are positioned now to have to close schools because so many new charter operators have opened up.

- It is 6:17 P.M.

And with the quorum of the board present, I call this meeting of the Leander ISD Board of Trustees to order.

- Please don't shut down my school, because I will miss my teacher and my friends.

- We've seen, in Pflugerville and Leander, a lot of challenges around school closures or the need to consolidate, despite the fact that these are fast-growth districts.

- According to U.S.

census data, almost 145,000 children lived within Austin ISD's boundaries in 2018, only a portion of which attended public schools.

Over five years, nearly 19,000 kids moved out of Austin ISD's boundaries, and the district lost over 8,200 students.

Meanwhile, the population of children within Leander ISD grew by over 7,000, and Pflugerville ISD grew by 8,700.

But even with that growth, Leander ISD's enrollment grew by 3,200 from 2018 to 2023, and Pflugerville's only grew by 139.

The 2025 Pflugerville ISD optimization analysis found that although enrollment has stayed steady within the district for a decade, over that same time, charter schools within the district's boundaries increased by about 4,000 students, and charter school enrollment in the region increased by 6,800.

In 2023, Pflugerville ISD administrators proposed closing two to three schools from a list of six campuses, although the board didn't move forward with that plan.

Five schools in Central Texas have already closed since 2018, and Leander ISD just voted to close one of its elementary schools as well.

Austin ISD is now going to close 10 more.

Either due to moving away or transferring, Austin ISD is losing students, and that also means they're losing funding, which puts further stress on the district.

Each school district receives a majority of their funding from local property taxes with some federal and state funding.

Schools and school districts receive funding based on the amount of students who attend.

For the 2023 to 2024 school year, Austin ISD spent $14,487 per student.

- Texas is one of six states that funds schools by attendance as opposed to actual enrollment.

And so in order to educate the kids, you know, we do need resources.

- Austin ISD is also under-enrolled, and under-enrolled campuses, like Dobie, are more expensive to maintain.

Dobie is trying to get their students back.

- So today we have an open house, but it's not your traditional open house.

Every year, because we have so many charter schools in this area, we lose about 100 to 120 students to other schools.

And we're a neighborhood school, we're a community school, so we want all our students to come to Dobie.

So we've taken our list of students that did not make it the first day and they have decided to go elsewhere.

So we called them and told them just to, "Hey, we're gonna have an open house.

Come check us out.

This is a new Dobie."

- [Meredith] While it may be a new Dobie, they are facing the same problems with low enrollment.

But one North Austin school is thriving.

(gentle music) - In part two of Meredith's report, we'll look at migration to charter schools.

Several charter schools are located in East Austin, and near traditional schools with low-performance grades from the state.

You can catch that report next week.

But before we go, from the Killer Bees in the seventies to the Sweeney Sisters in the eighties and nineties, to Domingo in 2025, "Saturday Night Live" has tapped into the zeitgeist and defined pop culture for more than 50 years, and Austin happens to be home to a massive collection of artifacts from the iconic show.

We took a look at UT's Harry Ransom Center.

- [Announcer] Ladies and gentlemen, George Carlin!

(audience applauding) (upbeat music) - Many of you may know that last year marked 50 years for the show that made American television, "Saturday Night Live."

And now Austinites get an exclusive look at the largest collection of "SNL" history in the world.

We're here at the Harry Ransom Center on UT Austin's campus to get a closer look at "Live from New York: The Lorne Michaels Collection."

The guest curator, Steve Wilson, joins us now.

So great to be with you here, Steve.

- Thank you.

It's great to be here.

- You know, how many people come in here and start off by saying, "Live from Austin, it's Saturday night"?

- A lot of people do.

- You know what?

I had to resist that urge in every cell of my body not to start off this, but now we've gotten that out of the way, while this might not necessarily be Studio 8H, it certainly gets you pretty close with the sheer amount of intimate records, costumes, cue cards.

But what would you say are the highlights, the must-see and maybe your favorite artifacts here?

- I think the things that are most interesting for me are the documents that show off how the show came to be, and where Lorne Michaels was at that point in his career, and what was happening at that time.

Those are really interesting to me, as well as these documents here in this case that talk about, you know, what "Saturday Night Live," what the live part of that means.

- [Laura] And we heard that it's actually a live production because it was cheaper apparently back in the day.

- That's one reason.

But also being live makes it more vital, and more energetic, and more alive.

- And probably more stressful.

- Right, yeah, definitely.

- In some of the photos, I can see that.

- Definitely.

- It is so impressive.

And speaking of impressive, for the University of Texas to get such a collection is such an honor.

Quite the body of Lorne Michaels, of course, the creator and longtime producer's life's work.

How did the university secure this collection?

And we actually heard that you stepped out of retirement to help oversee this, correct?

- Well, to put together the exhibition, yes.

But the collection, it's hard to say how it exactly came to us, but we think that it had a lot to do with our reputation as being a great cultural institution, preserving our heritage and all of that.

And we know that Lorne Michaels was interested in finding a home for his archive and looking for a suitable place, and that is not easy.

There's not that many places that could take on such an important collection.

But we think that it had something to do with the fact that we had Robert De Niro's papers, and David O. Selznick's, and Gloria Swanson, and these, you know, really important media-related collections, and he thought that it would be a good fit.

- Yeah, and there's a precedent for that here.

And as impressive as it is for us at UT, it's also impressive to have your body of work next to maybe the "Gutenberg Bible."

- Absolutely.

- And a Shakespeare folio.

- Andrew, what's with the puppet?

- Well, I started doing some ventriloquism in my standup act.

- Several cast members have been from the University of Texas over the years, including one for the 50th season and currently, Andrew Dismukes.

And, you know, you might not necessarily immediately think of a sketch comedy show as having such cultural and historical significance, but "SNL" has spanned generations and has had such an amazing impact on politics, on music, on celebrity and pop culture.

- John McCain and I, we're a couple of mavericks.

And gosh darn it, we're gonna take that maverick energy right to Washington and we're gonna use it to fix this financial crisis and everything else that's plaguing this great country of ours.

(audience laughing) - [Laura] Why do you think it's had such a lasting legacy?

- Well, there's a number of reasons.

One that comes to mind immediately is just this organization that Lorne Michaels put together that is composed of many different comedic voices.

And so there's a lot of different perspectives that go into how they relate to current events.

And that's the second thing I think that's important is how important "Saturday Night Live's" and Lorne Michaels' perspective on what's happening in our world.

That I think is really important, and has been through the 50 years.

So we can look back at things that happened 30, 40, 50 years ago and see what "Saturday Night Live's" perspective and America's perspective was on those events.

I think it can tell us a lot about ourselves and about the world we live in.

- And what do you hope this collection helps do for the next generation of "SNL" fans?

- Well, to give insight into what our world was like at that time at various points in history.

I think that's a really important aspect of this.

As well as just, you know, seeing how television works and the media landscape works, I think that that's a really important part of this archive.

- And, lastly, what is your favorite "SNL" sketch of all time?

If you can pick just one.

- That's a really tough one.

My generation, I was here at UT when the show started, and I would watch it every Saturday night as it was coming on.

So that first cast is the cast that I really relate to.

So Dan Aykroyd, John Belushi, Gilda Radner-- - The icons.

- Yeah.

So I think around the corner, the Festrunk Brothers were really fun, as well as some of the really important sketches at the beginning.

I remember the Three Mile Island sketch was really riveting to me at that time.

There's a lot of things, but that first season I think is the best.

- That was kind of the golden age of "SNL."

- It was, yeah.

- It was amazing.

I love those, I'm partial to the commercials, like any of the commercial parodies, Almost Pizza, and the Church Lady.

And out of respect, 'cause I know the Church Lady costume is here, I tried to wear something a bit more demure that she would approve of.

- Sure.

Yeah.

- Well, there's so much to see, so much for everyone, whether you're a fair-weather "SNL" fan or a diehard fan, the exhibit runs here at the Harry Ransom Center until March 20th.

Steve Wilson, the guest curator of "Live from New York: The Lorne Michaels Collection."

Thank you so much for being with us.

- Thank you so much.

I really appreciate being here.

(bright mellow music) (bright mellow music continues) (buzzer beeps) - [Alex Trebek] Matthew McConaughey, what are you doing here?

(audience laughing) (audience clapping) - What are any of us doing here?

(audience laughing) Whether I get your question right or wrong, free will is an illusion and life is a game that plays us.

(audience laughing) - That's another favorite "SNL" moment, for sure.

That's our show.

Thanks so much for watching and joining us on year two of "Austin InSight."

Happy New Year, and we'll see you next week.

(gentle upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music ends) - [Announcer] Support for "Austin InSight" comes from Sally and James Gavin, and also from Daniel L. Skret.

(gentle music)